{"id":2072,"date":"2014-11-23T20:56:51","date_gmt":"2014-11-23T20:56:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www3.law.harvard.edu\/journals\/jol\/?p=2072"},"modified":"2014-11-23T20:56:51","modified_gmt":"2014-11-23T20:56:51","slug":"recap-of-jol-midterm-election-panel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/jol\/2014\/11\/23\/recap-of-jol-midterm-election-panel\/","title":{"rendered":"Recap of JOL Midterm Election Panel"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On Monday, November 10, the Journal on Legislation hosted Professor Steve Ansolabehere (a Harvard government professor who consulted this year with CBS News on its election night coverage specializes in electoral politics, public opinion, and media) and Professor Elaine Kamarck (a Kennedy School professor and former White House senior staffer who created the National Performance Review, the largest government reform effort in the last half of the twentieth century, focuses on government efficiency and policy implementation). Moderated by JOL Membership Development Co-Chair Will Burgess, the panel discussed implications from the previous week\u2019s elections and the political climate going forward to 2016. Here\u2019s a quick recap of some of the panelist\u2019s insights:<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Where are we at now following last week\u2019s elections?<\/p>\n<p>Prof. Elaine Kamarck<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Dems knew this year would be tough, but didn\u2019t expect the margins to be so high<\/li>\n<li>Going forward, Republicans need in roads into young voters and people of color<\/li>\n<li>Where will \u201cRegular order\u201d (ie recall everything you learned in high school civics about how a bill becomes a law) be reinstated? Yes \u2013 Trade and tax policy; No \u2013 Immigration, Healthcare<\/li>\n<li>Even with the election victories, Republicans can\u2019t shut down the government again<\/li>\n<li>A current interesting legal question \u2013 how far can Obama go on executive actions? \u2013 Courts are quick to throw them out (example: Clinton on striker replacement)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Prof. Steve Ansolabehere<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Next senate race will be hard for Republicans<\/li>\n<li>GOP has problem in electoral college (only one state they can rely \u2013 TX) vs Dems (CA, NY, IL, MI, PA)<\/li>\n<li>Sixth year of presidency is usually a really bad midterm (and this year actually wasn\u2019t as bad as others in the past)<\/li>\n<li>Administration is and will continue pushing ahead on climate rulings and immigration which will hurt Dems in states like MT<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Question: Biggest mistake made? Prof. Steve Ansolabehere<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Biggest mistake the GOP can make is to leave immigration alone \u2013 need to show progress<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Prof. Elaine Kamarck<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>GOP\u2019s biggest mistake would be to revert back to 2010 in control over their own party: a study of 1,663 primary candidates showed that the Tea Party did less well than business-establishment candidates (the GOP mobilized moderate candidates to combat the Tea Party, especially in Senate races). But, they did that at enormous costs.<\/li>\n<li>Each party has its \u201cwing nuts\u201d \u2013 GOP managed to clamp down on them now and can\u2019t let up<\/li>\n<li>\u201cPolitics is like high school \u2013 you are who you hang out with\u201d (Example: Romney in 2012 association with wing nut people he nominated)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Question: What are people really upset about? Prof. Elaine Kamarck<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Recovery coming out of the coasts \u2013 incomes are stagnating; both Dems and Republicans needs to get the message<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Prof. Steve Ansolabehere<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>People are mad because Obama hasn\u2019t prosecuted anyone related to the financial crisis, neither party is running on that either<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Question: 4 states passed minimum wage increases and Republicans \u2013 where is the economic message from Dems? Prof. Elaine Kamarck<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Obama\u2019s first economic team was from Wall Street and the financial sector (which doesn\u2019t create jobs!)<\/li>\n<li>Neither party has come to grips with the real implications of the financial sector (GOP\u2019s message is \u201cbig biz\u201d, the Dems is \u201cDems like jobs but not employers\u201d)<\/li>\n<li>Both parties have a hard time coping with the reality of the new information economy (ie Silicon Valley \u2013 also not much of a job creator but a wealth creator)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Prof. Steve Ansolabehere<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Dems erred in trying to make all campaigns localized \u2013 missed opportunity<\/li>\n<li>Administration didn\u2019t really show leadership when people were nervous over ISIS and ebola which nudged last min on the fence voters the other way<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Question: Relationship between Congressional Dems and the President \u2013 incentive for Dems to be similarly obstructive to Reps in light of Obama? Prof. Elaine Kamarck<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Congressional Dems and the President\u2019s relationship is really bad \u2013 Harry Reed\u2019s Congressional staff said the President cost them the Senate<\/li>\n<li>Obama has had no interaction with Republican or Democratic senate (Congressmen say \u201cthey don\u2019t tell us anything\u201d)<\/li>\n<li>This next election will be on \u201ccompetence\u201d \u2013 Obama has not been competent to run big federal government nor Congress (compare with Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich \u2013 there was not an absolute wall of no communication)<\/li>\n<li>President seems unable to learn (first thing after election says I would love to have immigration bill but I\u2019m going to go ahead regardless ) \u2013 Obama\u2019s \u201cinability to engage\u201d in a way that other presidents have been able to<\/li>\n<li>This is not a parliamentary democracy, you have to be engaged with Congress<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Prof. Steve Ansolabehere<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>This administration has exerted executive authority to a much greater extent than any other (especially with regard to foreign affairs), Congress has exerted no control<\/li>\n<li>Next administration is going to inherit a lot of power and Congress is going to be weak (Reed didn\u2019t help it by changing the filibuster)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Prof. Elaine Kamarck<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Case to me bade that Congress itself is getting weaker and weaker \u2013 oversight ability has pretty much vanished<\/li>\n<li>Half of Congressional staffers are in the districts versus on the hill \u2013 most are temporary, don\u2019t have any internal memory and much younger average age<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Question: How should each party approach Obamacare? Prof. Steve Ansolabehere<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>If SCOTUS reverses, GOP is in a great position to say they wanted an incremental approach all along<\/li>\n<li>Roberts could evoke this \u201cequal treatment of the states\u201d doctrine he has been developing<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Prof. Elaine Kamarck<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Obama administration did not anticipate so many federally run exchanges<\/li>\n<li>How does it work out constitutionally to differentiate between states with state-run exchanges and those with federally run exchanges? (when all of the subsidies are federal)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Question: Would someone like Liz Warren have an easier time running with economic message? Prof. Elaine Kamarck<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Warren\u2019s message is right on, don\u2019t know about her as a messenger \u2013 even people who are sympathetic recoil<\/li>\n<li>Tagged with broad anti-business stance of the Dems, someone else may pick up that argument that doesn\u2019t carry the perceptional baggage<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Prof. Steve Ansolabehere<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Dems don\u2019t have a deep team to challenge Hilary Clinton, Liz Warren is pretty much the only one to carry through a primary<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Question: PR problem with the Dem party; is the party floundering when it comes to rhetoric? Prof. Elaine Kamarck<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Beyond rhetoric, it\u2019s a substantive problem \u2013 Dems don\u2019t have a set of policies that speak to this economy (great one for the economy of 50 years ago)<\/li>\n<li>Until they do Dems are going to be perceived as \u201cout of it\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On Monday, November 10, the Journal on Legislation hosted Professor Steve Ansolabehere (a Harvard government professor who consulted this year 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