{"id":944,"date":"2011-08-11T08:52:27","date_gmt":"2011-08-11T12:52:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www3.law.harvard.edu\/journals\/hlpr\/?p=944"},"modified":"2015-10-02T15:28:48","modified_gmt":"2015-10-02T15:28:48","slug":"more-wisconsin-drama-august-recall-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/2011\/08\/11\/more-wisconsin-drama-august-recall-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"More Wisconsin Drama: August Recall Elections"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jake Laperruque<\/em><\/p>\n

\"5453522223_cf72242021\"<\/a><\/p>\n

This Tuesday, Wisconsin held recall elections for six Republican Senators pulled back to the ballot box in the aftermath of Governor Scott Walker\u2019s controversial anti-union policies.\u00a0 With the results flying largely under the radar in the media (Politico headlined the story for roughly an hour before moving to their\u00a09,736th piece about TPaw\u2019s campaign falling apart<\/a>), here are a few important points to take from the election:<\/p>\n

Legislative<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Democrats knocked out two of the six GOP incumbents recalled for election.\u00a0 This lets Wisconsin Republicans keep control of the Senate, now by a razor thin margin of 17-16.\u00a0 However, one of those 17 Republicans is moderate Dale Schultz, who\u00a0voted against<\/a>\u00a0Walker\u2019s bill stripping union\u2019s of collective bargaining rights, and has been a\u00a0vocal critic<\/a>\u00a0of the Governor\u2019s agenda.\u00a0 Republicans still control the State Senate, but Governor Walker\u2019s ability to push his policies is effectively over.<\/p>\n

Or is at least delayed until the breakdown shifts again.\u00a0 Next week, Wisconsin voters will go to the polls yet again, this time for a recall vote of two Democratic State Senators. If the Republican challengers win, their victory will undo Tuesday\u2019s efforts.<\/p>\n

Even if Democrats take control of the legislature, however, they\u2019ll be unable to repeal Governor Walker\u2019s policies while he\u2019s still in office.\u00a0 That repudiation can only occur if Democrats boot the governor from office in a 2012 recall election that seems almost certain to occur.\u00a0 These individual recalls make the task of taking back the legislature easier and build momentum for a gubernatorial campaign (and I\u2019ve got someone in mind who would be a\u00a0damn good challenger<\/a>), but the future of Walker\u2019s agenda will not be decided until his own reelection occurs.<\/p>\n

Political<\/strong><\/p>\n

The recall\u2019s split outcome immediately\u00a0led in-state political operatives and partisan bloggers across the country to start declaring victory\u2014from both sides of the political aisle \u00a0The less-than-miraculous spin goes something like this:<\/p>\n

Dems:\u00a0 We took two Republican seats, so we win!<\/p>\n

GOP:\u00a0 We won 4 of the 6 elections, so we win!<\/p>\n

To figure out who really has an edge politically, I prefer to look at voting trends.\u00a0 It\u2019s not as simple as counting the number of seats you won, but it tends to produce more insightful results.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/strong><\/td>\n2008 Top Ballot Election (Obama\/McCain)<\/strong><\/td>\n2011 August Recall Election<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dem<\/strong><\/td>\nGOP<\/strong><\/td>\nDem<\/strong><\/td>\nGOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
District 2<\/strong><\/td>\n52<\/td>\n46<\/td>\n40<\/td>\n60<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
District 8<\/strong><\/td>\n51<\/td>\n47<\/td>\n46<\/td>\n54<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
District 10<\/strong><\/td>\n50<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n42<\/td>\n58<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
District 14<\/strong><\/td>\n52<\/td>\n47<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n52<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
District 18<\/strong><\/td>\n51<\/td>\n47<\/td>\n51<\/td>\n49<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
District 32<\/strong><\/td>\n61<\/td>\n38<\/td>\n55<\/td>\n45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

These are not good numbers for Democrats.\u00a0 All six races broke better for the GOP this week than in 2008.\u00a0 Turnout in these recall races was incredibly high, meaning the breakdown of turnout is probably similar to the \u201908 election.\u00a0 The significant movement toward the GOP reflects that Democrats still face an uphill battle in combating the anti-union policies of governor\u2019s such as Walker, and making gains overall in 2012.<\/p>\n

Scandal<\/strong><\/p>\n

Finally, we have the issue of potential tampering.\u00a0 Late into the tallying of the last race, Wisconsin Democratic Party Communications Director leveled this charge: (video<\/a>).<\/p>\n

If County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus sounds familiar, it\u2019s because she was\u00a0the center of another voter tampering scandal earlier this year<\/a>.\u00a0 The Wisconsin Democratic Party has insisted it will not be challenging the results, but with Nickolaus\u2019s activities becoming a perpetual problem, it might be wise to prepare for meddling before the next statewide contest.<\/p>\n

Image by\u00a0Dave Hoefler<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jake Laperruque This Tuesday, Wisconsin held recall elections for six Republican Senators pulled back to the ballot box in the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-944","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/peZQka-fe","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/944","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=944"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/944\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=944"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=944"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=944"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}