{"id":961,"date":"2011-08-24T08:10:38","date_gmt":"2011-08-24T12:10:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www3.law.harvard.edu\/journals\/hlpr\/?p=961"},"modified":"2015-10-02T15:28:09","modified_gmt":"2015-10-02T15:28:09","slug":"no-top-tier-its-still-romney-v-everyone-else","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/2011\/08\/24\/no-top-tier-its-still-romney-v-everyone-else\/","title":{"rendered":"No \u201cTop Tier\u201d \u2013 It\u2019s Still Romney v. Everyone Else"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jake Laperruque\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

It\u2019s been 10 days since Rick Perry announced his candidacy for President, and the Texas governor has already jumped to the top of the pack.\u00a0 Or, to use the term latched onto by the media, he\u2019s moved into the\u00a0Top Tier<\/a>, where Perry, Michelle Bachman and Mitt Romney battle for the nomination.\u00a0 But while this manage-a-blah makes for a good media story, the notion of an even battle between these contenders is a far shot from the truth.<\/p>\n

In reality, Mitt Romney is still the clear frontrunner for the nomination.<\/p>\n

<\/span>Just as in 2008, the media is putting far too much weight on national polls.\u00a0 These polls are notoriously \u201csoft,\u201d meaning most participants are uncommitted and likely basing their support on mere name recognition. \u00a0More importantly, national polls do not reflect a critical fact: the nomination fight is largely\u00a0determined\u00a0by early state\u00a0primaries.<\/p>\n

With the exception of \u201cComeback Kid\u201d Bill Clinton, no primary candidate has ever secured a major-party nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire.\u00a0 A win in these early states brings in the money and media attention necessary to propel a candidate to subsequent victories.\u00a0 And for the 2012 election, Mitt Romney is positioned perfectly.<\/p>\n

In New Hampshire, Romney is blowing the competition away.\u00a0\u00a0Polls<\/a>\u00a0show Romney with a double-digit lead.\u00a0 Even with Perry entering the race at a shockingly strong 18%, Romney doubles his support with 36%.\u00a0 Meanwhile, he\u2019s also performing strongly in Iowa;\u00a0aggregate polling<\/a>\u00a0shows Romney in a dogfight with Bachmann for the lead.<\/p>\n

Every candidate who has won the first two contests has cruised to the nomination, so the best shot at beating Romney is to win Iowa, and use that to build momentum.\u00a0 With little time to build the critical grassroots organization to win a caucus, Perry\u2019s chances are weak.\u00a0 Bachmann has led in recent polls, but even with an Iowa win she has a tough path to the nomination.\u00a0 The Republican establishment (wisely<\/a>) views her as unviable, and if she wins Iowa they will likely\u00a0unite behind Romney to crush her candidacy<\/a>.\u00a0 The Tea Party doesn\u2019t have the power to propel her to the nomination;\u00a0most Republican voters care more about winning than anything else<\/a>, and Michelle Bachmann doesn\u2019t give them a good chance to do that.\u00a0 If Romney doesn\u2019t lock up the nomination by winning Iowa, he\u2019ll lock up the essential establishment support by making bizarre-Bachmann his main contender.<\/p>\n

Some might say that Perry still has a chance by getting his own early state win in South Carolina,\u00a0where he\u2019s rapidly building support<\/a>.\u00a0 This would be a big boost, but the problem is Perry has to get there first.\u00a0 Assuming Bachmann wins Iowa and Romney takes New Hampshire, the race will be labeled as a two-way contest.\u00a0 More importantly, Perry will be labeled as a loser; after dropping the first two races, Perry won\u2019t appear viable and his support will flounder.<\/p>\n

Romney\u2019s nomination is not at all a certainty; there\u2019s more than enough time for someone to make a\u00a0Huckabee-like rise<\/a>.\u00a0 But the media\u2019s three-person Top Tier is ridiculous.\u00a0 Right now the Top Tier of the Republican field only includes one person, and that person is Mitt Romney.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jake Laperruque\u00a0 It\u2019s been 10 days since Rick Perry announced his candidacy for President, and the Texas governor has already […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/peZQka-fv","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/961","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=961"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/961\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.law.harvard.edu\/lpr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}