*Editor’s Note: This article is part of HILJ’s collaboration with the Georgetown Journal of International Law (“GJIL”) and the Georgetown Center on Inclusive Trade and Development on Innovating Trade: The Intersection of Emerging Technologies, Climate Initiatives, and International Law. HILJ and GJIL each edited and published different articles in the collaboration. Articles published by GJIL are available on the GJIL website.
Samantha Cristol*
Whether trade is occurring across oceans or continents, the climate costs of transportation are high. In 2019, transport accounted for roughly 15% of global greenhouse gas (“GHG”) emissions. As of 2023, that number was closer to 20%. Of that 20%, around 60% came from vehicles, and 11% from shipping. Reducing the climate footprint of transportation will help to support and sustain international trade. Not only will mitigating climate change decrease the probability of severe adverse climate change impacts, but the implementation of new, sustainable technologies can both benefit trade itself and increase the resiliency of trading communities in the face of climate disasters.
The current state of climate change suggests that there is a dire need to develop and implement technology that will reduce the climate impacts of transportation. This paper will briefly review the challenges transportation sub-sectors are facing and suggest climate technology, and climate technology adjacent, solutions. Then, it will examine how countries can use a combination of policy and trade tools to implement and encourage the proposed solutions.
I. Air Transportation
Air transit is the most carbon-intensive form of transportation: in 2017, it accounted for about 1% of carbon emissions globally. Aviation also poses climate concerns beyond carbon, as the condensation trails left behind airplanes also worsen climate change.
In terms of technology to reduce aviation emissions, a 2022 World Trade Organization (“WTO”) Report recommends lowering trade barriers for electric and hybrid airline engines, and the European Union has adopted a deal that includes an estimated €1.6 billion plan to support the use of sustainable aviation fuels. Although electrification of aircraft is progressing, most electrification initiatives are still confined to the realm of small, short-haul planes. Similarly, while Sustainable Aircraft Fuel (“SAF”) is in production, it is costly and currently not approved for use on it its own without being blended with traditional jet fuel.
While enforcing limits on international air transit that does not meet electrification or renewable fuel guidelines sounds like a simple solution to enforce cleaner transit, both technological and economic factors are holding the industry back. Continued funding for research, combined with subsidies to cheapen the cost of SAF, may help to quicken the transition.
II. Land Transportation
Land transportation is primarily composed of passenger vehicles like cars and buses, trucks, and rail transport. It is, across the world, the most substantial contributor to transportation climate emissions. While the popularity of electric vehicles has increased significantly, electric truck technology is still lagging. Moreover, although short-haul electric trucks are starting to arrive in the United States, battery capacity is a major barrier for longer-haul routes.
While rail transit offers significant advantages in regard to per-passenger-per-kilometer emissions, the “last mile” involved in the delivery of goods is often reliant on vehicle transport. In the United States, “last mile” transportation is described as the final journey from warehouse to doorstep, which is often made by mail Mail delivery trucks are carbon-intensive, adding an additional layer to the challenge of decreasing transportation-related emissions.
Subsidization of electric vehicles, alongside the installation of charging stations and related infrastructure, can continue to encourage consumers to switch away from traditional vehicles. In the case of trucks, however, more research is needed. Publicly funded research and development programs, combined with progressive vehicle requirements and standards imposed on sellers, may help to drive the research needed to reduce emissions. Initiatives aimed at eliminating “last mile” transportation emissions may help as well. Consumer behavior changes may be possible, by providing incentives to consumers that opt to pick-up from a central location, or choose to wait longer for transportation, allowing for a computer program to better optimize a driver route for drop-off. Electrification of last-mile truck fleets may also be a big help in decreasing delivery-related emissions.
III. Maritime Transportation
Sea transportation makes up roughly 3% of global GHG emissions, and 11% of transportation GHG emissions. Ninety percent of all traded goods are involved in ocean shipping. The shipping industry has already seen changes from climate change, like the opening of new year-round shipping routes through the Arctic due to reduced severity of winter weather. While these shorter routes could reduce the emissions per trip, the environmental degradation that could result from the increased use of these new passages is also worrisome. Oil or toxic substance spills could threaten the lives and sustenance of Arctic coastline communities.
While electrification of ferries has been successful, the transition for large ships faces the same problem discussed in both sections above: battery power. Battery power is not the only issue, however. To operate, batteries would need access to power infrastructure at ports. While upgrades are being made at many U.S. ports to electrify loading, docking, and tugging operations, these efforts have not yet expanded to electrification of long-haul ships themselves.
Transitioning shipping off of oil, or at least making shipping more energy efficient in its use of oil and gas, could make a significant dent in sea transportation emissions. To drive needed research and development, a model that combines public research funding with policy-based pressure may be effective. A policy that might effectively drive research and development could look like imposing fees on ships entering or exiting port. Fees could be based on factors like travel distance since last port of call or to the next port of call, engine efficiency, fuel mix being used onboard, or others. As distance between ports of call can be hard to calculate or predict, it may make more sense to instead base fees on the energy efficiency of the engine or use an equation that equalizes engine metrics with weight or amount of cargo on board.
IV. The Role of Trade
Public policy will be a large driver in implementing many of the above solutions, especially in terms of funding research and development and offering subsidy programs to incentivize the technology discussed above. These solutions, and others, like requiring carbon labels or introducing bans on products to reduce shipping amounts, become complicated when they interact with international trade law. Beyond the logistics questions, like how to calculate carbon footprints of a product prior to shipping (given reroutes, ships that stop at multiple ports, the transport that goes into component of the manufacturing process, differing last miles, etc.), and how to determine which products to ban (who makes the call on what products to ban), there is a question as to whether these actions are allowable under international trade agreements. Import bans may violate the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, subsidies may contravene the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures, limiting air travel may violate the Open Skies Agreements, and parties may have a case regarding national treatment or the Technical Barriers to Trade Agreement when it comes to carbon labels.
Beyond legality, many of the current proposed solutions focus on changing consumer attitudes to try and drive corporate innovation. This is certainly helpful—especially in the case of electric vehicles. However, the major problem that arises in every sector is a lack of battery power for the big-ticket carriers like jets, trucks, and long-haul ships, which is a huge obstacle to electrification. If total electrification is out of the question for the near future, then a multi-faceted approach that drives research and development while also pushing partial electrification and low-carbon transit options is the best bet.
That is where trade tools come in. While the WTO may not be at its most effective right now, nations can take action into their own hands when negotiating regional trade agreements (RTAs). Specifically, nations should be looking to technology transfer and capacity building provisions to promote cooperative programs that drive transportation efficiency across borders. RTAs are extremely flexible, and nations can include funding mechanisms to promote joint research, development, and deployment projects in the transportation space. Technology transfer provisions may also help to encourage the faster spread of energy efficient technology.
International cooperation will also be critical in the next few years as the world grapples with energy transitions and greenhouse gas emissions. Even though the Paris Agreement does not directly mention cars or trucks, reducing transportation emissions will be key to meeting, or at least trying to meet, its goals. Similarly, the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation provides a framework for participants to move toward lowering aviation emissions, as do the U.N.’s Sustainable Development Goals.
By participating in international climate and sustainable development agreements, using RTAs to their advantage, and thoughtfully implementing local policies, nations can encourage the invention and adoption of clean transportation technology.
*Samantha Leah Cristol is a third-year J.D. student at the Georgetown University Law Center, expected graduation Spring 2024. She holds a Bachelor of Science in civil engineering from the University of California, Berkeley, and is a LEED Green Associate.
